Top down analysis for trading GBPUSD in the coming week using Smart Money Concepts.
Not Financial Advice. For education ONLY.
#ModestPips #Trading #SmartMoney #TechnicalAnalysis #GBPUSD #GU
I closed my buys yesterday and starting to look for sells now.
DXY has been bullish the last couple days but it looks like it may be topping out. It has reached the structure highs, 0.612 fib zone (from the weekly perspective) and a key level which I am expecting to resist for this idea.
For DXY , keep an eye on 92.5 area and 92.665 area.
USDCAD is currently at a weekly key level support and LTF BearishStructure support , respected since the end of Jan. I am hoping for one more surge to the upside creating a fakeout liquidity grab and then strong push down. There could be some consolidation in this area before we see that strong downward move.
Invalidation: A daily candle close above the 0.786 fib.
Let me know your thoughts.
I closed my sells earlier today and starting to look for buys now.
DXY has been bullish the last couple days but it looks like it may be topping out. It is nearing the structure highs, 0.612 fib zone (from the weekly perspective) and a key level which I am expecting to resist for this idea.
For DXY , keep an eye on 92.5 area and 92.665 area.
EURUSD on the other hand is currently at a support level creating a double bottom pattern. If this area holds, we could see the price bounce up from here.
Alternatively, the more likely scenario, further weakness could create a deeper pullback to the 0.786 fib zone where the support is much stronger and coinciding with multiple areas of confluence such as HTF bearish structure & LTF bullishstructure support as well as a monthly key level support.
Invalidation: A daily candle close below 1.174 would invalidate this idea as I am expecting the bullish structure to support the price.
Also note, I haven’t analyzed the latest COT data to confirm if the data is in favor of this idea or not. Regardless, this trade could last several weeks.
Let me know your thoughts.
For mobile trading, I bring a laptop, 2 portable monitors, and an HDMI cable. By having these accessories, I can use 3 screens and if I am lucky a 4th screen connected to a TV.
As I was staying in AirBNBs for a several months, it allowed for a minimal trading setup. I could view charts on one screen, cTrader on another and more charts, news or browsing on the other screen. And if I had a TV, I could use that for additional charts. Obviously, its not optimal but it was enough to get by.
In terms of hardware, I use my trusted gaming laptop (Lenovo Legion 5 with Ryzen 7 4800H and GTX 1660ti), Asus portable monitor (AUS1641) and a G-Story portable monitor (Full HD, touchscreen). The screens are connected via USB C & USB A (My laptop is limited to a single Type-C port on my laptop). And just a note about that G-Story, it has many features such as touchscreen, multiple connection options at a very reasonable price, but I wish I would have paid a little more and got a 2nd Asus instead. The Asus looks clearer, brighter and can use displaylink which is a software based display driver that allows seamless connectivity by USB A.
My entire mobile setup is packed into my backpack with room to spare for weekend trips or even trips lasting for extended periods.
Thanks to COVID, I temporarily relocated to Japan where I was living in Airbnbs for a few months, until I decided to rent an apartment. Although I still don’t have any appliances here, I setup a proper workplace.
As my desktop is still in storage at HK, I bought a gaming laptop (Lenovo Legion 5 with Ryzen 7 4800H and GTX 1660ti) to replace it while I am here. I have it connected to 2 LG 4k monitors connected at 4k @60Hz and my portables connected at 1080p that I use for my mobile setup. One which acts as my primary charting screen and the other just displays currency strength and world clocks.
I even spent some money on lighting to reduce strain on my eyes working at night. I placed monitor lamps on the 2 LGs that produce enough light to work at night. Although I bought the backlights to reflect additional lighting, in the end they aren’t bright enough and don’t produce light colors and ultimately only used for aesthetics. They do look pretty damn cool though.
I also connected the laptop to Edifier R1700BTs that produce beautiful sound at a very reasonable cost. These are a must to keep me calm while trading and very useful for watching videos & movies while waiting for trade setups to develop.
All in all, I am satisfied with this setup. I have the monitor real estate needed to display all the charts I use with enough room for my trading apps.
As for upgrades, I will replace the mousepad with an XL one to cover the keyboard & mouse. I am also considering a RAM upgrade but it’s a pretty costly upgrade. I’ll try to hold off on this hoping I can get my desktop here in the coming months. My wife is currently in HK and hopefully, she can arrange the shipment.
Although I was bearish on DXY a couple weeks back, I am now bullish . DXY has broken out of the the Bearish Structure. And as we all know, Descending Wedges are a bullish signal following a breakout. As clearly seen from this chart, not only has DXY broken out of the wedge but it has also retested it. From here it should continue upwards. It appears a new structure is already starting to form.
I am guessing, we may see a correction around this level as it recently hit a key level but expect a push up to the next order block following a little consolidation within this order block.
It is very important to follow and understand DXY movements as it will have a huge impact on USD pairs. As such, I am expecting USDCAD to extend further to upside (Analysis linked below). As well as GU & EU to melt down further.
Again to summarize, I am expecting a small correction and then a move to the the upside. I will do a review and follow-up next weekend after the coming week’s price action.
Last weekend, I was projecting an upside move for USDCAD (linked below). If the bottom of the right shoulder was caught, then that trade is still valid for potentially 300 pips. Unfortunately I missed that entry. This weekend, I zoomed out and forcasting a larger move from the daily & monthly point of view.
Although USDCAD is consolidating within a descending wedge , my idea assumes that it will break out of it. According to my analysis, I am expecting a breakout to complete the smaller inverted H&S pattern. And then a retest of the support level to create the right shoulder of the larger inverted H&S pattern. Thereafter, the sellers will tire out once again and then a strong push to the upside to complete the pattern(s) and retrace to the .382 fib.
The idea has extra confluence as the structure is supported by a monthly bullish structure. As well as the strengthening USD, which will heavily influence this idea. But one more concern is that I am also expecting Oil to gain strength and if that happens, it could also impact the result of this idea.
If this idea plays out, there will be multiple opportunities to profit off this move. The one I am currently looking for, is the upward move to complete the smaller right shoulder (linked below). Although it won’t initially reach the target, it can still provide 200 pips. From here, there is the possibility to look for the downside move (but it is more risky as it may not happen and at this point and you will be trading against the trend). Thereafter I will look for a retest back to the support level that creates the larger right shoulder for the next big push up. This will be the more interesting move as it can provde from 380 pips to 650 pips.
See the full writeup below…
Here is what I am looking for, for BTC buys.
If we retrace to 45k, this is the area I am looking to buy.
To see the full writeup, please check out the details below.