I closed my buys yesterday and starting to look for sells now.
DXY has been bullish the last couple days but it looks like it may be topping out. It has reached the structure highs, 0.612 fib zone (from the weekly perspective) and a key level which I am expecting to resist for this idea. For DXY , keep an eye on 92.5 area and 92.665 area.
USDCAD is currently at a weekly key level support and LTF BearishStructure support , respected since the end of Jan. I am hoping for one more surge to the upside creating a fakeout liquidity grab and then strong push down. There could be some consolidation in this area before we see that strong downward move.
The current USDCAD structure appears to be a corrective structure of the HTF bearish structure, it could create a downward move to break the lows and extend as far as the -0.272 fib level.
Invalidation: A daily candle close above the 0.786 fib.
Last weekend, I was projecting an upside move for USDCAD (linked below). If the bottom of the right shoulder was caught, then that trade is still valid for potentially 300 pips. Unfortunately I missed that entry. This weekend, I zoomed out and forcasting a larger move from the daily & monthly point of view.
Although USDCAD is consolidating within a descending wedge , my idea assumes that it will break out of it. According to my analysis, I am expecting a breakout to complete the smaller inverted H&S pattern. And then a retest of the support level to create the right shoulder of the larger inverted H&S pattern. Thereafter, the sellers will tire out once again and then a strong push to the upside to complete the pattern(s) and retrace to the .382 fib.
The idea has extra confluence as the structure is supported by a monthly bullish structure. As well as the strengthening USD, which will heavily influence this idea. But one more concern is that I am also expecting Oil to gain strength and if that happens, it could also impact the result of this idea.
If this idea plays out, there will be multiple opportunities to profit off this move. The one I am currently looking for, is the upward move to complete the smaller right shoulder (linked below). Although it won’t initially reach the target, it can still provide 200 pips. From here, there is the possibility to look for the downside move (but it is more risky as it may not happen and at this point and you will be trading against the trend). Thereafter I will look for a retest back to the support level that creates the larger right shoulder for the next big push up. This will be the more interesting move as it can provde from 380 pips to 650 pips.